The Israeli land operation in Lebanon is opening up new perspectives on the war in Ukraine and tensions with China. If Iran pulls back, peace in Ukraine could also become easier.
As its hostages are still held in Gaza with no quick solution in sight, Israel is preparing for a land operation in Lebanon against the Iran-supported Hezbollah. With no resolution for its people held captive for a year in Hamas’ underground tunnels, Israel appears ready to confront Tehran and its allies with comprehensive actions that could also influence the Russian war in Ukraine.
The Israeli offer is presently to free the hostages and allow Hamas leaders to leave the Gaza Strip. Then, Israel would implement a plan to demilitarize and deradicalize the strip. For Hamas and its Iranian patrons, accepting this would mean a political defeat, and it has been rejected so far. Such a defeat could potentially weaken radical forces in Iran. It then becomes an internal Iran power game.
The land operation in Lebanon is politically simpler than in Gaza. In Gaza, Israel needs to free the hostages; in Lebanon, it can withdraw at any time by declaring it has achieved its objectives.
In any case, Israel has shifted its regional grand strategy after the October 7 massacre. Before October 7, Israel viewed its situation, surrounded by general hostility in the region, as unsolvable, thereby something to be managed. The Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu managed it through a special relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin would control Syria, which, in turn, would control Hamas. However, a year after the Ukrainian war had begun, Putin failed to warn Israel about the attack. He was perhaps distracted by Ukraine or interested in diverting global attention from Ukraine.
A new Israeli strategy is apparently taking shape. It aims at pushing back on Iran, the main force aiding extremists in the region, including in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. The operation in Lebanon is intended to exert more pressure on Tehran. It is possible that without Hamas’s surrender, Israel will escalate attacks against the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria.
This growing pressure may objectively draw Iran more into the Middle East and detach it from its support for Russia. It could put China in a difficult position, forcing it to either increase its support for Russia and potentially for Iran or to retreat from a larger conflict. There are strategic risks for China with either choice.
Increasing support would entangle Beijing further in a war it does not control, where it can be easily manipulated by the “allies.” Still, it would help create a diversion from US attention. Pulling back could create difficulties for China with its “allies,” leading to their defeat and weakening China’s geopolitical position. However, it could open new opportunities for dialogue with the United States or Europe, where economic and political agendas are interconnected.
This creates a complex scenario in which the gap between the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza narrows daily. The key could be for Iran to step back, press Hamas to release the hostages, rein in Hezbollah and the Houthis, and halt arms supplies to Russia. This move could also help China keep its distance from the Ukrainian war. With decreased support from Iran and China, Russia might become more amenable to serious negotiations, bringing peace closer.
Then, it would be time to consider a broader peace framework for the Middle East, focusing on identifying the right political solutions.
The next few weeks could be crucial for determining Iran’s direction and, thus, how the other conflicts will proceed.
